Ahead of the December 2020 general elections, KUDUS Research and Advocacy Center has predicted President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo will retain his position as head of state.
The centre’s prediction comes after a generic poll conducted between 20th February and 7th March 2020.
“A total of about 600 sampling was taken using purposive and random sample out of which about 450 responded. Focus was on pro-NPP regions like Ashanti region Eastern region and Pro NDC regions like Volta region and Northern regions (UE, UW, NR) and others including Central Region, Western Region, Greater Accra Brong Ahafo classified as swing regions based on voting patterns of Ghana from 2000-2016,” KURAC noted in a press statement.
The statement further noted that the president will win the elections by 54% “to John Dramani Mahama who will win by 46% in this hypothetical situation but Ghanaian voters are the best judges as we would be releasing more generics not only about the presidency but the parliamentary as well.”
Read the full statement below
The above organization wishes to through light on whats to expect in the upcoming general elections of Ghana in this hypothetical situation.
The elections of Ghana is held every four years of which a candidates have been mandated to four years two term’s per the constitution of Ghana. The Ghanaian elections is purely based on popular vote’s of which the presidential candidate’s needs 50+1% of the votes to be elected as President of Ghana.
As research and advocacy center of international reputes who have been able to predict most elections yet again what’s to lay our hand’s on the Ghanaian elections despite many month’s ahead sees this as first test of the two biggest political parties which have the chance of winning power that’s the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) of which generics poll’s was taken in Ghana between 20th February 2020 to 7th March 2020.
A total of about 600 sampling was taken using purposive and random sample out of which about 450 responded, Focused was pro NPP regions like Ashanti region Eastern region and Pro NDC regions like Volta region and Northern regions (UE,UW,NR) and other’s including Central Region ,Western Region, Greater Accra Brong Ahafo classified as swing regions based on voting patterns of Ghana from 2000-2016.
About 250 out of 450 were from the swing regions of Ghana taken about 55.5% of the sample taken pro NPP regions took about 150 comprising about 33.3 % and pro NDC regions took about 50 people comprising about 0.11
With the Generics that was taken from the swing region’s 250 sample NPP had about 140 comprising 56% and NDC had about 110 compromising about 44% ,Also on pro NPP regions out of total 150 NPP had 83 comprising about 55.3% and NDC had about 67 comprising about 44.7% and finally on pro NDC regions out of total 50 NPP had about 20 comprising about 40% and NDC had about 30 comprising about 60%.
Meaning NPP won pro NPP regions and the swing regions making them expected to win the 2020 General elections with about 54% of which the NDC will get about 46%.
From the above at 95% confidence levels (+/-5) Nana Addo Danquah Akuffo Addo lead’s John Dramani Mahama with about 4% to the build up to 2020,meaning with the margin of error of +/-5 no other additional party was considered in this generic poll’s and the higher spoil vote’s that usually place third were also not considered.And their percentage can reduced at maximum and minimum 5%(0-5%).
Hence Kurac anticipate Nana Addo Danquah Akuffo Addo would win the presidential elections by 54% to John Dramani Mahama 46% in this hypothetical situations but the Ghanaian voters is the best Judges.As we would be releasing more generics not only the presidency but the parliamentary as well.
Note: Newly created regions weren’t used only based on 2016 below.
By:Yussif Abdul Kudus
Founder & Executive director Kurac
+233(0)245535151
source: Ghana Web
